Recent political data and public opinion research indicate that a backlash against transgender rights is getting stronger, particularly in the United States.
The reason for this is intense anti-trans propaganda from the Republicans and the failure of pro-democracy politicians to protect and defend trans people.
Shifting support
According to a US survey presented and analyzed by Lakshya Jain in The Argument, measures once widely opposed, such as bills requiring transgender people to use bathrooms corresponding to their sex assigned at birth, now has the support of a majority of voters, with about 52 % backing such legislation and only 33 % opposing it.
Similar trends are found in sports, where over 60% of voters favor restricting trans athletes to teams based on sex assigned at birth.
The polling also finds strong opposition to gender‑affirming care for minors, including puberty blockers, hormones, and surgeries, even when supported by doctors and parents.
The effect of anti-trans propaganda
Even if many of the anti-trans bills presented by Republicans in various states fail or are stopped in the courts, the extreme propaganda targeting transgender people has had an effect.
A majority of Americans do not known that much about transgender people, gender variance or gender dysphoria. The support trans people had up till 2024 might partly have been caused by a sympathy for marginalized people in general and LGBTQ people in particular.
Remember that 2014 was seen as the "tipping point" for transgender rights. Until recently the transgender community seemed to be winning.
The backlash has been severe. The anti-trans activists has managed to establish a narrative that causes what many see as "reasonable doubt", in spite of the fact that all serious research show that transgender identities are real, that gender dysphoria is not caused by a mental illness, and that trans women are not attacking cis women in women's bathrooms.
The anti-trans activists present themselves as defenders of women and children, even if the whole MAGA movement is anchored in patriarchal misogyny and - as we have seen recently - the Epstein cabal of sex abusers and pedophiles.
The failure of pro-democracy politicians
It clearly has not helped that Democratic politicians, including Kamala Harris during the presidential campaign, deliberately stayed away from the topic out of fear of losing voters. This was most likely taken as proof of there being something wrong with the trans community by some voters. If the Democrats do not want to talk about trans people, there must be something wrong, right?
Some Democratic politicians mistakenly believed that debating Republicans on transgender issues would give bad policies more attention. Others let cynicism trump decency, chasing transphobic voters.
But LGBTQ+ issues are actually not driving voter behavior. Democrats lead the generic ballot. The Republicans have not succeeded in using trans issues from distracting voters from Trump's failures on other fronts, the economy, foreign policy and immigration included.
On the other hand: Trump’s overall unpopularity has not translated into more tolerant views on gender identity either. If the Democrats had associated the transgender cause with MAGA fascism in general, that might have turned out differently.
Because the MAGA anti-trans policies are taken straight out of the fascist playbook: Find a marginalized group and make people believe they cause everything bad in the world. Hitler blamed the Jews, Trump blame trans people. The anti-trans crusade is proof of this being part of a fascist takeover, but instead of making that clear to Americans, most pro-democracy politicians and influencers take cover.
There are, fortunately, signs of some pro-democracy politicians understanding what is at stake.
First hand experience
Trump has also failed to turn the increasing skepticism towards trans people into hatred of all LGBTQ people. Support for same‑sex marriage remains strong and stable. But this is partly because Americans are more likely to know gay and bisexual people personally. They know from first hand experience that gay people are just people like themselves. They are not equally familiar with trans people.
However, the way so many Americans have turned against trans people in so short a time, tells me that this may also happen to other queer people. There is good reason to think that the next stage of the culture war will be against the rest of the LGBTQ community.
The ultimate goal for the right wing extremists and religious fundamentalists is a society governed through traditional gender roles and the old fashioned American cishet middle class family, and in order for that to happen, heterosexuality has to be the only option.
The Humanist Report
Mike Figueredo from the Humanist Report discusses Jain's article over at YouTube. Even if he shares many of Jain's observations he argues strongyl against reading these numbers as proof of trans activist overreach:
But my real issue is with Jain's framing of the findings and the conclusions that he draws because I think that he is saying things that are harmful.
He provides zero evidence to suggest that radical trans activists are the ones who turn the country against trans people. And on top of that, he doesn't mention the millions of dollars being spent by Republicans against trans people...
...while I don't deny that public opinion on trans rights is obviously negative, the same can be said for literally every other civil rights issue throughout our country's entire history. If marginalized people waited until public opinion changed to ask for rights, we would never make any progress on any issue ever.
He argues that the reason why support for trans people has slipped is "because Americans have been bombarded with non-stop anti-trans propaganda for nearly four years."
He is right. And ultimately this is not only about trans people, either. It is about allowing a group of clearly evil bigots to destroy the decency and compassion needed to uphold a thriving democracy.
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